Deckers Raises Its Earnings Outlook and Cuts Its Sales Outlook as Nike and On Target HOKA's Core Market

Deckers posted a record $1.48B quarter and raised FY2027 EPS guidance to $7.80–$7.95. It also cut its full-year sales outlook by roughly $170M at the midpoint, and HOKA growth slowed to 6.8%. Nike and On are now targeting the cushioned-running category that built HOKA, and the stock trades near $87, roughly 11x guided earnings.

DECK · Consumer Discretionary · November 07, 2026

S&P 500 Position

Deckers sits in Consumer Discretionary alongside athletic and apparel names, including Nike and Lululemon. Those three moved together in the November 4 rally: Nike rose 7%, Deckers 7% and Lululemon 6%. Nike is also a direct competitor. Its Spring 2027 lineup, along with On's push, targets the cushioned-running category that drove HOKA's share gains. That puts Deckers in competition with the largest company in its industry for the same running customer.

Index Weight: Data unavailable | Rank: Data unavailable (market cap not provided)

Company Overview

Deckers is a two-brand company. In FY2026 (year ended March 31, 2026), HOKA and UGG together produced roughly 97% of the company's $5.47B in net sales. The rest of the portfolio has been cut back: - **AHNU:** Ahnu.com closed on October 1, 2025, and the brand was phased out of wholesale. - **Koolaburra:** Its standalone operations wound down in the second half of FY2026. - **Other brands:** This segment is now mostly Teva. It fell 54.3% in Q2 FY2027 to $17.0M. The two remaining brands peak in different seasons. HOKA was 69% of Q1 FY2027 sales, the spring and summer running quarter. UGG was 53% of Q2 sales as retailers stocked up for fall. Teams managing supply chain, inventory allocation and demand forecasting have to run two opposite demand curves through the same distribution network. HOKA's growth is slowing: - FY2026 net sales rose 15.9% to $2.59B. - Q2 FY2027 growth fell to 6.8%. - A secondary source citing Circana credits HOKA with gaining about two points of US road-running share in the 12 months ending September 2025. - Evercore ISI says Nike and On are aiming directly at cushioned running, the category that drove HOKA's rise. Nike's Spring 2027 lineup is built to compete there. UGG is responding to its seasonality in two ways: - **Product:** The March 2026 Golden Collection of warm-weather sandals and clogs extends the brand beyond the boot season. - **Marketing:** The 'Born to Feel' brand platform launched September 22. Its holiday extension, 'Gift the Feeling,' launched November 2. The main question for the coming quarters is whether HOKA can hold its share in cushioned running against Nike and On. The company's results also show a mismatch in its sales channels: - International sales grew 26.8% in FY2026 to $2.28B. - Q2 FY2027 domestic sales slipped 0.4%. - Direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales fell 1.8%, and comparable DTC sales fell 6.4%. DTC had grown 13% in the prior quarter. International wholesale is growing while the company's own stores and websites are losing sales at comparable locations. For a company that hired H&M's former chief digital officer to run digital and data, falling own-channel sales are the weakest number in the quarter.

Products & Revenue

HOKA and UGG generate almost all of Deckers' revenue. In FY2026, HOKA contributed $2.59B (47.3%) and UGG $2.74B (50.1%) of $5.47B. Any single quarter is skewed by season. Q1 FY2027 was 69% HOKA, while Q2 was 53% UGG. Year to date through September 30, 2026: - HOKA reached $1.38B, up 7.3%. - UGG reached $1.06B, up 3.9%. On channel mix, wholesale delivered about two-thirds of Q1 sales. DTC was 41.4% of FY2026 sales but only 26.2% of Q2 FY2027, where comparable DTC sales fell 6.4%. Revised FY2027 guidance of $5.70B–$5.73B implies 4.2%–4.7% growth over FY2026. The prior range of $5.86B–$5.91B implied 7.1%–8.0%.

UGG (53.1%): Premium sheepskin and comfort footwear. Q2 FY2027 sales were $786.4M, up 3.5%, and full-year FY2026 sales were $2.74B, up 8.2%. The brand is extending beyond winter with warm-weather sandals and clogs.

HOKA (45.7%): Performance running brand built on high-cushion midsoles. Q2 FY2027 sales were $677.2M, up 6.8%, and FY2026 sales were $2.59B, up 15.9%. Nike and On are now targeting its core category.

Other Brands (primarily Teva) (1.1%): Q2 FY2027 sales were $17.0M, down 54.3%, after Deckers closed AHNU and Koolaburra as standalone operations in FY2026. What remains is mostly Teva's sandal business.

DTC Channel (cross-cut, overlaps brand segments) (26.2%): Company-owned websites and stores. Q2 FY2027 sales were $387.5M, down 1.8%, with comparable sales down 6.4%. DTC was 41.4% of FY2026 sales.

Brand percentages are from Q2 FY2027 (quarter ended September 30, 2026; total $1.481B), per the October 22, 2026 Business Wire release. Q2 is UGG's seasonal peak. For a full-year mix, FY2026 (10-K, year ended March 31, 2026) was HOKA 47.3%, UGG 50.1% and roughly 2.7% other. DTC is a channel view that overlaps the brand segments, so the rows do not sum to 100%.

Leadership

Stefano Caroti

CEO since 2024. Caroti became President and CEO on August 1, 2024, when Dave Powers retired. He joined Deckers in 2015 as president of omnichannel and held that role for nearly eight years. In April 2023 he became Chief Commercial Officer and also served as interim president of HOKA. He is a channel and commerce operator rather than a product or design executive, and the current DTC decline is happening under his leadership.

Joel Ankarberg, Chief Digital & Data Officer (appointed September 2024): He was previously Chief Digital Officer at H&M Group, and his listed experience includes AI and data management. He was brought in to bring fast-fashion-scale data practices to a seasonal, wholesale-heavy footwear business.

Chief Digital and Data Officer (open search), Role posted on Deckers' careers site, reporting to the President & CEO: The posting places enterprise technology, digital technology, data and analytics, business optimization and portfolio management under one executive. The Business of Fashion listing closed June 21, 2026, which signals a leadership transition in the company's technology function.

Dave Powers, Former President & CEO (retired August 1, 2024): He led Deckers during HOKA's rise and handed over to Caroti. The current CEO inherited Powers' two-brand structure and then finished pruning the rest of the portfolio.

The AI Angle

Data leadership in flux, no disclosed AI products

Deckers has not disclosed any customer-facing AI products. The available research contains no shipped AI features, no named models and no AI partnerships confirmed by the company. That absence matters for a company with $5.6B in trailing revenue whose own websites and stores just posted a 6.4% decline in comparable sales. Deckers' AI story is internal and organizational, and it is still in progress. The organizational evidence: - In September 2024, Deckers hired Joel Ankarberg, former Chief Digital Officer at H&M Group, as Chief Digital & Data Officer. His listed background includes AI and data management. - The company later posted the same title as an open role reporting directly to the CEO. The listing closed June 21, 2026. - The posted role covers global enterprise technology, global digital technology, data and analytics, business optimization and portfolio management. Placing internal IT and customer-facing digital under one executive who reports to the CEO is how a company sets up to build enterprise-wide data products such as forecasting, allocation and personalization. On infrastructure, the only stack detail available comes from Pintel.ai, a third-party vendor-intelligence site, and Deckers has not confirmed it. Pintel.ai says Deckers unifies customer data in a central analytics platform built on Google Analytics 360 and BigQuery. If accurate, that indicates a buy-not-build approach on Google Cloud's analytics tools. The company has disclosed no proprietary model development and no named research team. The opportunity is clearest in demand forecasting. HOKA and UGG peak in opposite seasons and share one supply chain. Wholesale drove about two-thirds of Q1 FY2027 sales, and international grew 26.8% in FY2026. A company with that profile benefits most from better forecasting and inventory allocation, more than from generative AI shopping features. The risks: - **Competition:** Nike and On are moving on cushioned running with large product and marketing budgets, so HOKA's share depends on how quickly Deckers reads demand signals. - **Leadership turnover:** Turnover in the top data role, during a slowdown, delays any return from data investment. Deckers is behind on AI, and it has not yet shown that its data organization is stable.

Financial Snapshot

Revenue (TTM): $5.58B (TTM through September 30, 2026) | Net Income: $1.06B (TTM net income)

Margins: Gross: data unavailable. Operating: data unavailable. Net: 19.0% (TTM). Q2 FY2027 gross and operating margins included about 310 bps of benefit from IEEPA tariff refunds.

Q2 FY2027 earnings were boosted by a one-time item. Diluted EPS of $2.31 beat the $1.79 consensus. That figure included about $0.28 from $46M in net IEEPA tariff refunds plus $3M of interest. Revenue of $1.48B missed the $1.51B estimate. Management lowered full-year sales guidance and raised EPS guidance, so near-term earnings now depend more on margins than on revenue growth. Capital allocation is focused on buybacks: - In FY2026, Deckers repurchased about 10.5M shares for $1.075B. - The board added $3.5B to the authorization. - About $4.4B remained authorized as of September 30, 2026, roughly four times trailing net income.

1-Year Performance

$86.71 as of November 7, 2026. Year-over-year change: data unavailable.

After the Q2 FY2027 report, shares fell more than 8% in after-hours trading and closed the next regular session down 5.7% at $80.41. The decline reflected the revenue miss, the lowered sales guidance and slowing HOKA growth. Piper Sandler downgraded the stock to underweight with a $75 target. The stock then rose 7% on November 4 in a broad consumer rally that also lifted Nike and Lululemon. Since then, coverage has focused on the raised EPS guidance and on valuation, including a cash-flow-based undervaluation argument.